Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

108
FXUS61 KRNK 042354
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina
coast through Friday, bringing wintry precipitation to our area
mainly in the form of snow. This low exits to the east by Friday
night with high pressure building in for Saturday. Another front
moving in from the west may bring a chance of precipitation late
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Model trends are leaning toward some higher amounts
along/northwest of the I-81 corridor, so a few locations could
see 5 or 6 inches but low confidence on coverage of those
amounts.

2) Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Friday for
the entire region.


High-res solutions have upped the amounts some especially in the
corridor northwest of I-81 into southeast WV. Ensembles are
leaning on the 3-5 inch range, but solutions like the HRRR and
3km NAM are hinting out 6+ inch amounts over portions of
Southeast WV into the higher ridges of the Blue Ridge north of
Roanoke. Looking at some winter parameters such frontogentical
forcing and -EPV indicates potential for some banding, but
overall, the strength/speed of this system does not paint a
strong picture of mesoscale banding lasting long, so overall,
though we believe there will be places that see 5-6"+, the
majority of the area will remain in the 2-4" range. Nonetheless,
a plowable snow for most. Further south into NC, some mix and
slightly warmer temps aloft will limit totals, but given temps
falling back into the 20s tonight, no changes to the advisory
were made.

Timing still looks to be 9pm at the earliest in far SW VA,
reaching the NC/southern VA Piedmont by 2-3am, with most having
snow around midnight-1am, then ending between 7am-noon.

To summarize amounts, we are expecting mainly 2-4", with locally
5-6" along/north of of U.S. 460 and northwest of I-81 from
Bluefield/Wytheville, north into the Shenandoah Valley, with
potential 3-4" amounts in spots along the 460 corridor from
Roanoke to Lynchburg. Along/south of US 58 in southern VA
expecting 1-2" amounts. A light glaze of ice still possible in
the NC mountains into far SW VA, just a few hundredths.

Previous discussion...

A low pressure system will bring in snowy conditions tonight into
Friday morning. Recent model guidance suggests this system may
arrive a little earlier than initially anticipated. Currently, the
far western mountainous counties may start to receive light snow as
early as 10PM. As the system moves east, isentropic lift starts to
peak around midnight and light snowfall will take over the
area. The snow will begin to move out around daybreak but may
linger on for a few additional hours before precipitation
chances drop towards zero by early Friday afternoon. Ensemble
model guidance as increased the QPF expected which will
translate into more snow amounts. For most of the region,
between 2-4" are forecast to accumulate overnight with localized
areas receiving up to 5-6". Counties in North Carolina and
counties in Virginia bordering NC may receive the least amount
of snow with only about 1-2". The reason for this is while the
snow system makes its way through, a surface high pressure
system to our northeast will begin to wedge in. This will
reinforce cold air into the area. Due to the timing of this
wedge and the snow arrival, areas in the Piedmont may receive
rain at first which will then transition into snow.

Winds may pick up as the snow moves through, mostly for areas
further west. Even a modest wind gust, however, will decrease
visibility with the light snow. To reiterate from previous
discussions, the early morning commute Friday will be
undesirable given the snowy conditions.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Quieter weekend with below normal temperatures

2) Front on Sunday night/Monday morning will bring rain for most,
some snow in mountains

Saturday will be mostly quiet with zonal upper flow and little to
speak of in terms of synoptic features. Temperatures will drop well
into the 20s each night. Daytime highs will warm back into the 40s
for most, with Monday being cooler behind a front.

Sunday will feature a cold front introducing rain starting Sunday
night. As temperatures drop with the frontal passage, upslope snow
will take over for rain in the mountains, largely west of Roanoke.
Piedmont and central VA regions will remain liquid in terms of p-
type. Accumulation amounts will be light with this system, as there
will not be sufficient moisture available for large QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet workweek bookended by a late week front

In high pressure behind Sunday`s front, the remainder of the
workweek will suppressed by a broad strong region of high pressure.
Monday night will be the coldest immediately in the wake of the
front, with temperatures for most of the forecast area dropping into
the teens. Luckily there will be little wind to speak of, so we will
likely avoid dangerous wind chills. Temperatures warm back to just
below normal for the end of the week, as we look ahead to the next
frontal system likely to impact us Friday. We have settled into a
familiar frequency of frontal systems in winter of another every 3-4
days. Too early to make a call on whether snow will be included with
the late week system, but it is December, so it wouldn`t raise any
eyebrows if frozen precipitation entered the conversation in the
next day or two.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Thursday...

VFR to start the TAF period will deteriorate quickly by 04-06z
for the area with snow moving in from the southwest. This snow
will bring sub 1kft cigs and vsbys mainly in the 1-3sm range,
but dropping at times to under a mile if snow becomes heavier.

Snow moves out between 12z-15z, but low clouds will remain as
there is no good mixing to clear out the skies. Fog may also
impact vsbys into the afternoon.

Confidence in this forecast his high for poor flying weather,
moderate on how low vsbys go.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Persistent low level cloud cover this weekend and another system
early next week may keep all terminals sub-VFR for a while. It may
not be until higher pressure moves in around mid-next week that
skies become clear, but another potential winter system may return
following it.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ007-009-
     015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ001-002-
     018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...CG/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...CG/WP